Peter, I am citing something that I think is common knowledge in the semi-conductor industry. From 1993-95 we went through a scenario where demand was constantly ahead of the supply because of precisely the same sort of things that are happening now, viz., everyone scoffed at the notion (including the folks who made the chips) that there would be such a tremendous need (by standards prevalent in 1991-92) for semiconductors in general, and DRAM in particular. For example, back then (when I was delivering DOS based applications and was messing around with XMS/LIMS standard for memory management), we had people who would not buy our software simply because it needed 4 MB RAM; four-five years later, I can ask my users to get 64 MB and they would not balk (because it is cheaper than what 4 MB was then).
Here we are, exchanging ideas through the net, in text. How far are we from being able to exchange other information media (graphics, audio, video) with the same ease? What level of processing/memory requirements would be needed to support something like this at the end user level? The next boom cycle in semis (we are barely going through the bottom here) is projected (by SIA and assorted other organizations) to begin around 1998 (when our hunger for memory is supposed to go through the roof by current standards) and last at least till 2000 when we go through the same situation: supply outstripping demand because we still would not have figured out newer avenues for memory consumption.
I think Micron the stock (which is simply the collective wisdom of the market) is indicating precisely what has been forecast, that there will be a boom cycle in semis (this is not IT). The current action in MU reflects what the bears discount as mania: that those hordes of people buying the stock (not all of them are brainless imbeciles blindly following analyst recommendations) may have a better perspective and handle on this issue than what the bears might care to (is n't this called 'denial' in the shrinking circles) or want to admit.
Best Regards,
Sridhar |
