Alliance Hangs in Balance
By Pavel Felgenhauer
Almost a year ago, Russia and the United States joined forces to fight terrorism. Moscow helped to topple the Taliban regime in Afghanistan; Washington in return tacitly gave its new Russian friends a free hand in the Caucasus after it was established that al-Qaida terrorists had links with Chechen rebels.
But now the alliance with Russia seems to be at breaking point. On Saturday, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer publicly accused Russian officials of lying that their warplanes did not bomb Georgia last Friday. Fleischer also accused Russia of escalating tensions in the region and called for an urgent political settlement to the conflict in Chechnya.
It is reported that Russian bombers attacked Georgia with heavy fuel, or vacuum, bombs under cover of darkness at 5:20 a.m., killing one and wounding seven civilians. The powerful blasts were registered by international border monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, who said they watched the warplanes cross into Georgia from Russia.
The United States has its own means of monitoring Russian military activities in the Caucasus -- in the same manner as Russia always closely follows U.S. military activity in the Middle East and the Balkans. U.S. spy satellites would surely have registered the powerful flash of a fuel bomb exploding in the dark. U.S. radars at bases in Turkey and surveillance planes observing the no-fly zone in Northern Iraq could also have recorded the Russian bombers flying over the main ridge of the Caucasus Mountains to attack Pankisi Gorge to the south.
What's clear is that the White House had additional facts at hand when it publicly called Russian officials liars -- including President Vladimir Putin's close friend and political ally Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov. But why was this particular instance of deceit taken up so doggedly by Washington?
Russian warplanes have bombed Georgia many times in the past, and the Russian military has often meddled in the internal strife that has ravaged this post-Soviet republic during the past decade. Russia also reportedly bombed Georgian territory at the beginning of this month, and OSCE monitors registered the strike. The Russian military denied any involvement and the White House did not intervene publicly.
Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze is an old friend of the United States, but his regime is ineffective and corrupt. If the problems between Moscow and Washington were confined only to the Caucasus -- the conflict in Chechnya and the spillover of hostilities into Georgia -- it is possible the White House would not have issued such a stern public rebuke.
Putin is no doubt a much more valuable ally than old Shevy. If Putin had continued to act as an American ally, Washington would surely have done its best to resolve the Pankisi problem in private, as between friends. The reason the incident went public and got ugly is that, in Washington, Putin's Russia is not seen as an ally anymore.
Over the last year, as relations improved, Washington increased pressure on Moscow to stop nuclear technology transfers to Iran, to cut back sales of new, sophisticated weapons to Iran, China and other questionable states that might use them against U.S. forces or those of its allies. But instead of heeding these warnings, Moscow stepped up activities that many in Washington believe to be anti-American.
In recent weeks -- and despite U.S. protests -- Moscow has confirmed that it will finalize and put into operation a nuclear power reactor in Iran at Bushehr on the Persian Gulf. Last month, it signed a deal to build five more. Moscow has announced its intention to sign a long-term, $40 billion cooperation deal with Iraq. It has also signed new arms deals with China and Iran, pledging to sell new jets and sophisticated anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles that could be used against U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf and near Taiwan. And to add insult to injury, Putin once again publicly embraced the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il during Kim's recent trip to the Russian Far East.
There are influential groups of people both in Moscow and Washington who never trusted the other side despite all the recent protestations of a new friendship. The present major crisis was obviously promoted by them from behind the scenes. If Putin does not intervene firmly when he returns to Moscow from the Far East, the bureaucracies and lobbying groups will have their way and attempts to bring Russia into the West will fail once again.
Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent defense analyst.
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