bcrafty and augie -- re: sentiment on the boards and such.
I know of no one who reads SI or iHub or Raging Bull or whatever and then "fades" what they think the overall consensus is doing. I agree, if not throwing money away, it would be little better than throwing darts. That said, having been on SI for five years now, I do feel I can use what I see here to some benefit. In what way?
Well, what if all the boards I consider "bear" boards are lathered up and predicting doom "right here and right now!!!!"? Would reacting to an overwhelming bearish bent be any different than noting the AAII or II numbers or the Rydex numbers (assuming, as I think I do, I have a decent handle on how to judge this sentiment)? Now, would I TRADE based on this alone? No way! Do I ignore it? Again, I think I've been doing it long enough to find some benefit.
As to the comments on people's timeframes for trading, of course that matters. As to your comments on boards being a small microcosm of the trading worlds. . . but of course. Then again, Michigan Sentiment, which moves the WHOLE market, is a survey of what. . . 250 people?
A final note: it used to be you could make good money just following the Freepish Contra Indicator. If any of you find a poster on any board or a commentator on TV who can be faded with that same 95% accuracy level, please let me know.
the freep |
