Hi Nadine Carroll; Re: "Thank you, Carl. Now, what is the lead time for mobilizing reserves?"
The time that is of interest is the lead time between mobilizing the reserves and going to war. In the case of major conflicts, such as the first gulf war, the reserves were mobilized in August 1990, but the war didn't start until early the next year. I would expect another war in Iraq (which is impossible for diplomatic and military considerations) to be timed about the same way.
If the military had been told by the Administration that "we are going into Iraq in November", the following things would happen:
(1) The news would be told to thousands of people.
(2) The news would leak all over the place.
(3) The military would be calling up reservists left and right, especially in the face of US manpower now in Afghanistan.
(4) You wouldn't be reading about this in Stratfor, Debka, or Asia Times. You'd be reading about it in the regular press. And not at the level you're seeing it now. The press would be interviewing soldiers being called to the front, babies would be photographed being kissed, lovers would be crying at the loading docks. In short, the shit would have hit the fan. But the situation instead is no shit, no fan, just the usual, long running, unsubstantiated rumors of war. Exaggerations of routine military exercises and restocking. Nothing that hasn't been going on monthly for decades, but that no one ever took notice of.
War is very easy to recognize if you just take off the rose colored glasses.
Think back to news reports in preparation for action in Afghanistan. How can you really compare that to the current situation? The fact is that nothing, absolutely nothing, is going on, except the Bush administration talked themselves up a creek. They have no war plans. They have no allies. All they have is war talk, and only people wearing high presecription rose (blood) colored glasses see what is going on as a preparation for warfare.
That the demobilization of the reserves is happening now is likely related to the fact that a lot of their 270 day services are coming due. But in times of "declared war or national emergency", such as did happen in the Gulf War, congress can extend this time. I don't recall seeing an extension of the 270 day time for the battle against terrorism, which is likely why we're seeing the numbers go down so quickly. If there was a national emergency, like our last war with Iraq, the reservists would be finding themselves extended. Instead, they're finding themselves back in civilian clothes, as my numbers indicate. What the hell do you think is going to happen, that they're going to be called up again in a few weeks?
Here, more than you ever wanted to know about the reserves:
defenselink.mil
carlisle-www.army.mil
So why hasn't Bush extended duty for the Reserves? Oh, the war with Iraq is over now and the Reserves can come home?
-- Carl |
