Good Morning Janice,
I hope you have not resorted to genuflecting as I have done before this inanimate messenger of irrational behavior. No sign at all as to when the chair will be replaced. Earnings release in a few hours. Sounds like good news is coming. How would a market maker know a day in advance that its going to be good news ? Hope he is right and honest. I have very little trust of anyone on the professional side of this money game, based on prior negative experiences, no offense intended to anyone individually, especially Blaine, who seems to be whole-heartedly honest and open and informative but the profession includes a dark side. Greed is a powerful motivator, private investor or professional.
I was caught by this quite unexpectedly deep thrust downwards. Had to do some selling but I am now in a much stronger position. The return to a rationally depressed price on Wednesday has also helped. I continue to have faith that the company will deliver as forcast over the next 12 months. I give no credence to predictions beyond 12 months. In this industry long range forcasting approximates wishful thinking with ulterior motives.
I now believe a serious general market correction has started. I was hoping it would be short and shallow or a false indication. But I see damaging pricing activity all over the board. Semiconductors have been hit, and this has been going on for months. The healthy ones will survive and prosper. This happens in the semi industry very often. But this last wave of the market has been quite extreme to the high side. There's been a lot of air to let out of the bubble. Happily for semiconductors I think the bottom is near, although bottoms seem to drag on for long times sometimes.
My view of xico within this perspective is that it will base, between 7-14 with lots of 8-11 activity, as if its hoping to shake the rest of the shares out. I see this going on for the entire summer quarter, with a definitive bottom established before Q3 end. Longer range view still over 20 (within 12 months). I think xico will emerge a strong stock with a steadily growing price by Q3 end, very healthy.
Now is the time to remember John's admonition to turn the tube off for several months, if you have a solid position and a good faith in the corporate fundamentals, they will prevail but it will take some time.
As for the big board, I have deep reservations. Its going to get quite a bit more severe, and soon. The tragic news from New York (TWA crash/explosion) is heart-wrenching, and the kind of thing that pundits will identify as a trigger behind significant market movements. I hope this will not be the case. The relatives and friends have enough to grieve over. Much damage has been done to the DOW components. Some mutual fund switching activity should be coming soon.
Have you had a chance to read in the The Official Guide To GOOFs Thread yet its in Miscellaneous General ? I hope you can give it a go. Humor is a good release. Paul, Maurice and Rick are awaiting your arrival. Regards, Mike |
