Re: By 2007, yearly revenue from ...
I really think this guy is way, way, off. Which chip will do better in that time frame, I don't know.
But long, long, before 2007, the notion of a 32-bit server or workstation will be ludicrous. I've got program managers now who were disappointed that they were basically limited to 3 gig of useable RAM on servers they ordered months ago. A year from now, when Intel is pushing Madison hard, or has released Yamhill to keep Hammer from taking too much share, even entry level servers will be marketed with the capability for 4 or more gig of RAM. By 2005, I'd expect $500 to $1,000 SNAP-type servers to offer models with more than 4-gig.
For a database or web server to maintain responsiveness under load, it must be able to keep indexes and/or frequently hit pages in cache, and that means a lot of memory.
4 gig of RAM, which is more than can be used by a 32-bit CPU, is down to $1,150 on pricewatch (as 4, 1gig DIMMS). A year from now, it will almost certainly be less than $500.
We have bought a couple of 32-bit servers with 4gig of RAM, but it was something of a waste, since the hardware peripherals (video card, disk controllers, network cards, etc.) reserve big chunks of the address space such that 1/3 to 1 gig (depending on the other peripherals selected for the box) is never used because it can't be accessed. The main point is that I had programs that wanted 4gig+ servers a year ago, and couldn't get them.
As far as going to SUN, Alpha, or Itanium is concerned, those solutions are too expensive for these programs, and (with the exception of SUN) some of the applications that needed to be run weren't available.
Remember the universally acknowledged wisdom of the statement "the 32-bit 386 will be limited to servers for the next 3 to 5 years" - and then Compaq came out with its Deskpro, to the befuddlement of many. IBM didn't bother to offer a 386 system for many months because they were convinced there was zero demand for such systems. If this guy were around then, that's the kind of stuff he would have been writing. |
