RE: "Cramer"
You showed his list of "technology" stock recommendations, circa 2000. They are ample evidence that he has NO understanding of technology. I think you should ignore him.
It is easy to deal with the most extreme cases of ignorance, but it is not very useful. We should stick to people whose ideas we are willing to incorporate into our world view.
I think most of our discussion should deal with the nature of the bubble aftermath, where we are in the aftermath, and where the end will be. I find the news from CSCO, NOK, NT, LU, and then the semi manufacturers more valuable than the constant semi-equip analyst 1 month visibility announcements.
I think semi-equip valuations and expectations have finally got to appropriate levels based on the intermediate term outlook. The prices have moved toward cycle bottom valuations and analysts have recently used historical cycle bottom numbers to establish worst case. The leaders , AMAT, KLAC, NVLS, are doing much better than "normal" cycle bottoms. Soon, the street will start publicizing the "technology growth, rather than capacity growth" story and will start talking about the slower, longer cycle which benefits from a smaller group of customers making more rational decisions. This will put in the bottom and start the long move up. Some time in 2005 the real fun will begin. Capacity growth will take over and a more traditional, exuberant move up will take us to 2007-8 peaks in the business cycle. Peak prices 2006-7. |
