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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.36

+2.2%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (5211)	8/30/2002 6:17:44 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) of 95520

While I was responding to BWAC's post, you were doing so as well. Thanks for posting the numbers. I think it makes it rather clear as to what the analysts think is going to happen. They looked at the small(18M) drop off in Bookings from June to July and expect more of the same declining Bookings numbers based on all the "lack of visibility" comments and "order push outs" like NVLS alluded to last evening in their report. While they didn't mention it specifically, I'm sure they don't like the fall off in BtB numbers for the last 2 months as well, as shown in your table. The DJ article claimed that all this "pullback" in Bookings has been priced into the semi-equip stocks at this time, so for the next several months, the stocks are not going to fall much, but rather drift in a sideways pattern. Now that they have it all figured out, wouldn't it be interesting to see what happens if the fall off in Bookings is negligible or even rises a bit. The next SEMI BtB report is due out on Wednesday, 18 September, 12 trading days away. Not very long to wait to see if their prognosis comes true. Don

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