Sam,
re: The China Play and Forecasting
For lack of detail behind the slides, I don't necessarily conclude (from slide 9 or 14, that there will be more cdma 1x users under the End User Play than the China Play because it is difficult to predict in the End User scenario how Netcom, Telecom, China X, and China Y will move but it is possible that.
Having said that, I've struggled with slide 15, and I confess that I am not sure what the numbers in that slide represent.
More generally, is it legitimate to draw conclusions from these three scenarios to technology market shares?
To some degree, I think so, and I think so because they are in fact 3 legitimate scenarios for a very unpredictable China.
MII rules, and it is difficult to predict how liberal or how rigid they will be in controlling migration.
<< What in the history of wireless supports such conclusions? >>
To some degree I would say that if you look at the history of 2nd generation wireless and examine the US with a sort of combination of End User/Operator scenario, and Korea or Europe with something resembling a "China Play", you have separate and distinct scenarios.
<< And when one cannot even precisely estimate handset sales one quarter out, how can one make these kinds of estimates for 2005? >>
LOL! This gets us into discussions of my favorite art ... science ... black art, the short, medium, or long term forecast.
I happened to have to be a participant in wireless forecasting and consequential budgeting and staffing (short, medium, and long) from 94 to 98 for 2nd generation wireless data oriented products. This was a lot of fun going into 1995 when for the most part it was unclear who would hold PCS licenses or what technology those eventual licensees would choose from the 3 most popular choices. The smoke cleared somewhat by mid 95 but C, D, E, & F blocks were still ahead, and in 1996 capital markets dried up, so what you thought you knew, you really didn't know. In addition you had to be concerned with the pace of getting through standards development and commercialization of (in our case, data oriented) technology enablers for the various technologies ...
... which gets us into the need for multiple scenarios particularly when forecasting long term, which is why I am rather enamored with this presentation.
As for the 2005 estimates, they seem to be pretty much consensus at least for total subs (slide 20).
They are pretty much in line with EMC's estimates, and EMC has the most sophisticated cellular database, the best industry pipe, and many consider them to have the soundest forecasting methodology - which is why they are so widely subscribed.
Given the factors in play here (China) some assumptions have to be made when you attempt to break out total subs by technology. It is really a crap shoot right now, and MII is the croupier "MII the ruling power with strong control of the Chinese".
In the case of slide 20 the breakout by technology could be spots on, but really, it is anybody's guess, and not only are we not privy to the author's assumptions, we do not know the rationale for same, or his biases.
Best,
- Eric - |
