AA: I think there is a curious question to which we may get an answer in the early part of next week, namely, Are we or are we not going to see at long last a 5 wave move (down, in this case)?
So far, the move (I’m thinking DOW right now, the others are similar) was 3 waves down over the past few days. By NOT conclusively breaking above the 8785 level, it is still capable of becoming an impulse down. On the other hand, if the sell off Friday afternoon was not an early part of the fifth down, but rather a set up for the next leg of the next ‘three’ up, then the series of ‘threes’ will continue unbroken.
This last case, for another ‘three’ up from here, actually may be be short term rather bearish, because after another small move up to complete the “b” of a putative larger zigzag down, the next move would be a likely sister leg of the prior decline into the 8/29 low).
On the other hand, if we see soon a move to new lows relatively to that of 8/29, thereby completing a 5 wave impulse, then we can reasonably expect a multi-day rally, which would unfold in a corrective fashion (and be a likely 2 or b), which would try to re-test the highs of 8/22. (This scenario would make my life a little bit easier, which does occur, but not often –g).
The nice part of this train of thought is that we may see an answer soon, and not too far from where the action is at present. As for me, if we complete a ‘five’ down, I’ll cover at least in part, expecting a significant re-tracement, and if we rally from here to make another “three”, I’ll stay put(s)… and then see.
Now, what MAY I “see”?… It is not impossible that the entire rally since late July – early August will ‘correct’, and than go on to make a matching move up, to make a big zigzag or a flat, thoroughly messing up both bulls and bears, before likely resuming the larger down trend. That would be a nasty an evil thing to do to y’awll. May happen. May not. Got to be nimble, and keep figuring the trend.
Ol'Ski, leaving now the Opinionated.com and heading to Manhattan to see a show. Trying get a life... -g/ng. |
