L-When we look at how badly QCOM stock has performed over the last year, we should note the extraordinary amounts of money that went out of equity funds and into bond or money market funds, or out of the securities markets altogether and into real estate.
My estimate is that fully half the losses in the markets are explained by loss of investor confidence (including overseas investors growing skeptical of the U.S. economic growth and the slipping of the value of the dollar against foreign currencies). The other half is explained by downgrading of the whole tech sector, with particular emphasis on telecommunications, by major investment firms such as Merrill Lynch.
Unfortunately the prospects for most telecom companies don't look all that great for the next year or so, except for QUALCOMM. However, the reality is that good performance for just one, or even a handful of stocks is probably not going to make much difference in the stock price. That's different from predicting where the price should be, or could be, given the improving earnings. In that regard, the notion that QCOM should sell around 60, an estimate made by several investment firms, is probably reasonable, in my mind at least.
Art |
