Trying to Piece Together a Puzzling Presidency
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Scholars Praise Bush Staffing, Fault Public Message
By David S. Broder
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, September 3, 2002; Page A02
BOSTON -- The people who teach and study the presidency find George W. Bush a puzzlement.
More than 20 of them wrestled with his personality and performance on panels at the Labor Day weekend convention of the American Political Science Association. Their provisional assessments ranged from simpleton to the strength and purposefulness of Harry Truman or Ronald Reagan.
"Simplistic, one-dimensional, lacking the analytical and intellectual skills the office needs, a Dan Quayle in sheep's clothing," said Michael A. Genovese of Loyola Marymount University. "Emotionally secure, well-organized, staffed by able, competent and experienced people, not visionary but clear and specific in his goals, a political natural," insisted Fred I. Greenstein of Princeton University.
The political science profession has a distinctly liberal cast and, as Stanley A. Renshon of the City University of New York acknowledged, "In the left-of-center intellectual world, we put emphasis on cognitive complexity. Bush is not deep, but he has essential insights and he is strategic."
Part of the problem in assessing the Bush presidency, most of the participants in four panel sessions agreed, is that it has had three distinct phases in its first 19 months: from the delayed election verdict through last Sept. 10; from the terrorist attacks through the end of major fighting in Afghanistan; and the current period of economic troubles and a looming war with Iraq. His strengths and weaknesses have looked different at each stage.
The constants, most of the scholars said, include a shrewd command of the staffing process, a penchant for secrecy and a bold assertion of executive powers and privileges, and a decidedly mixed record of public advocacy and explanation.
Vice President Cheney, whose influence they agree is unprecedented, is credited with a major role in managing a successful transition after the delayed election verdict and blamed for feeding Bush's belief that he must combat a long-term erosion in the power of the president -- something that Louis Fisher of the Congressional Research Service said borders on "contempt of Congress."
Colleen J. Shogan of George Mason University argued that Bush's "anti-intellectual, populist approach" was useful to him "as an offset to his privileged background" in the campaign against Al Gore and equally valuable in building public support and a sense of legitimacy after the disputed election victory.
"After 9/11," she said, "he found his moral voice" in condemning terrorism, but his penchant for reducing complexity to simple, categorical terms, as in the phrase "axis of evil," has hampered him in dealing with the muddled world and domestic picture today.
She and others said the Israeli-Palestinian conflict ended the unprecedented unity of response to terrorism, because it defied Bush's efforts to draw stark contrasts between good and bad forces. The revelations of corporate greed made him seem a reluctant warrior against the very people who are his natural allies.
Iraq, said Karen M. Hult of Virginia Tech, has shattered "the impressive discipline of his inner circle, and now the signs of deep division are raising concern whether Bush is in charge of a unified administration. That would be a daunting situation for any president."
But some of the scholars are unwilling to write off Bush's chances of a successful presidency. The defection of Sen. James M. Jeffords of Vermont from the Republican Party and the consequent need to battle a Democratic majority in the Senate shattered Bush's hopes to tamp down partisanship in Washington, several scholars said. But Bush has "brilliantly managed" the staffing of his administration, according to Shirley Anne Warshaw of Gettysburg College, and "has hired people committed to getting his agenda through."
Although Cabinet members were picked with an eye to racial, ethnic and gender diversity, much as President Bill Clinton did, sub-Cabinet people were carefully screened to produce a uniform adherence to conservative principles and specific Bush policies, Warshaw said. By aggressively using regulations and executive orders to advance that agenda, they are demonstrating that "this president gets it."
George C. Edwards III of Texas A&M observed that Bush "has a self-confidence that has served him very well" not only in creating a sense of mandates for his tax cuts and education reforms, despite an election standoff, but also in his response to the terrorist attack. "That gave him an opportunity to build a new relationship with the American people, and he seized it," Edwards said. "There was no more talk of a stature gap after that."
On the other hand, Edwards said, Bush has not been able to persuade or coerce support on many issues from Senate Democrats, "nor has he been able to mobilize public opinion" to pressure Congress.
Martha Joynt Kumar of Towson University said the Bush White House has built on the communications apparatus of its predecessors and shown skill in planning its messages and a willingness to experiment with new technologies. But Bush has been negligent in preparing for some news conferences, she said, and has been hampered in domestic policy "by a lack of White House staff officials capable and willing to brief reporters on policy."
Bruce Miroff of the State University of New York at Albany said Bush has been unable to sustain an effective message to the public, losing momentum for his agenda after passage of the tax cut in the spring of 2001 and getting "a pretty weak" response to his current appeals, a year after Sept. 11.
Because of its difficulties with Congress and the public, several scholars said, the administration has stretched executive powers to the point they may breach constitutional limits.
If Bush asserts the authority to attack Iraq without a congressional declaration of war, it could prove the greatest crisis for his presidency, they said.
© 2002 The Washington Post Company
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