CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel?

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To: AugustWest who wrote (19782)	9/3/2002 5:13:39 PM
From: noiserider	of 20297

Phil, (this is in response to a message posted on the Yahoo board messages.yahoo.com Gary's stated purpose of the ACH analysis is - Our analysis is designed to show how much traffic is moving through a third party processor (CKFR) and its bank (E.g. BOA) vs directly between a biller (PG&E) and the consumer. And the method he uses to estimate the number of bills "between a biller (PG&E) and the consumer" is the ACH CIE and WEB transaction statistics from NACHA. He concludes - growth in ACH CIE and Web transactions could be construed as a negative to the biz models of the consolidators. I see three major problems with Gary's analysis. One, the consolidators (CKFR, eCom and Metavante by Gary's definition) all host biller direct sites, too. They've hedged their bets. So even if there is high growth in biller direct transactions, the consolidators benefit. Two, you've pointed out that many of the payments made through CKFR are also WEB and CIE transactions. Gary really hasn't done his homework and doesn't know the magnitude of these transactions that confound his data. I bet eCom and Metavante do the same and his data is in error from their transactions also. Three, even if ACH direct payment transaction increase at the expense of the consolidators I think most of us imagine this is the first evolutionary step in switching from paper to bits. The second step will be consumers moving from direct payment to consolidated eBills. Billers like eBills because they are a way to "touch" the consumer to cross-sell products. Consumers like eBills becasue they offer a greater degree of control over when and how much is paid to the biller. Noise

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