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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: macavity who wrote (6721)	9/3/2002 11:53:48 PM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) of 33421

Bonds What is the take if $TNX breaks 3.95%. My view is that if bonds (10Y & 30Y) break out (yields break down) that the markets are pricing in a deflationary scenario for the US. (I also believe that commodities are in a bull market, but that this will not lead to inflation, as a significant majority of commodities have cut back supply, formed mergers, over the last 2 years) Ideas any one? I could actually see continuous waves of mortgage re-financing thus keeping the housing bubble in the air should yields break down even more This is my take as I believe that the US-2000 is Japan-1989 in bigger size and without the savings ratio, to allow years of financial mismanagment. They can still try and invest Social Security into the stock market to prolong things 10Yr stockcharts.com[g,a]maclyyay[pa39.5][vc60]&pref=G -macavity

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