Americans buck Bush on attacking Iraq
BOSTON HERALD POLL
by Joe Battenfeld
Wednesday, September 4, 2002
Despite rallying behind President Bush's war against terrorism, most Americans won't support a U.S. invasion of Iraq without the backing of allies, a new Boston Herald poll shows.
The poll of 1,007 voters nationwide shows Bush has failed to make the case to U.S. voters for unilateral military action to topple Saddam Hussein, even after months of publicly laying out the case to the nation.
Just one-third of voters say the U.S. should try to go it alone against Iraq, while 17 percent believe Bush should launch no military action at all.
Nearly 40 percent of Americans say they would support an invasion, but only with allied forces backing the U.S.
``The results clearly suggest that the administration should be very cautious about moving forward with military action without at least a minimal coalition of allies,'' said Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers, director of RKM Research and Communications. Even among Republican voters - who overwhelmingly back Bush - just 40 percent say they support a U.S. invasion without any allied support, according to the poll.
Massachusetts voters are even more skittish about an invasion of Iraq.
A separate sample of 402 registered Bay State voters shows that just 28 percent back a unilateral U.S. invasion, while 27 percent oppose any military action against Iraq.
The national poll, conducted Aug. 23-30, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent, and the Massachusetts poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
The poll results come as Bush makes a new push this week to convince the public and lawmakers that Saddam Hussein must be removed from power. Bush has invited key members of Congress to the White House, and is reportedly considering a nationwide address later this fall.
Democrats and some military experts have warned recently that an invasion of Iraq could hurt the U.S. effort against terrorism - a belief that many Americans also share.
Four in 10 Americans believe that launching action against Iraq would make it ``more difficult'' to fight terrorism, according to the poll.
Bush's trouble in getting an endorsement for an Iraqi invasion comes despite getting continued high overall job approval ratings, even in heavily Democratic Massachusetts.
Sixty-four percent of American voters approve of Bush's job performance, while 61 percent of Bay State voters give him a favorable job rating.
Just 24 percent of voters nationwide disapprove of his job performance.
There are strong gender and partisan differences in how people view Bush, however. Bush's job approval rating drops to 58 percent among women voters, and just 40 percent among Democrats.
Yet the president gets even better marks in how he's handling the war against terror. Nearly seven in 10 voters in the Herald poll approve of his job performance battling terrorism.
Myers said the high approval ratings reflect voters' concerns about foreign policy and the continued threat of terrorism.
``It's more than just rally 'round the flag,'' Myers said. ``These numbers are sustained now. I think the response to the attacks and the events in Afghanistan . . . has all been viewed positively by voters.''
More than seven in 10 voters also approve of Bush's move to create a Department of Homeland Security, even though just 16 percent say it will help fight terrorism ``a great deal.''
Voters also appear skeptical about Bush's long-term plan against terrorism. Just 48 percent agree the president has a ``clear and well-thought-out policy'' to deal with terrorism, while 35 percent say he does not.
But Bush's approval ratings plummet when voters rate his performance on the economy, according to the poll.
Just 47 percent of Americans approve of his job handling the economy, while 39 percent disapprove - hardly a ringing endorsement.
In Massachusetts, Bush fares even worse, with 40 percent approving of his economic policy while 45 percent disapproving.
Myers said those numbers are a clear warning sign that voters want Bush to pay more attention to the economic slump.
``The administration continues to be dogged by the poorly performing economy and growing concerns among voters about their personal financial situation,'' Myers said. ``This is the most significant issue the president will need to manage. He appears very vulnerable on the economy right now.''
Myers said voters in Massachusetts give Bush lower marks probably because ``they are feeling the effects of the uncertain economy a little more than the rest of the country.''
The nation's slumping economy also appears on the minds of voters as they head into the polling booths this fall.
When asked to name the issues that will decide who they support in the election, one third of voters nationwide cited the economy, 29 percent cited education and 19 percent named health care. Just 12 percent named terrorism as an issue affecting their vote.
In Massachusetts, education appears to the leading issue, with 35 percent of voters citing it as a factor in the election. Twenty-nine percent of Bay State voters cited the economy and 22 percent named taxes as an issue - a much higher figure than in the nationwide poll.
Myers attributes the importance of education and taxes in Massachusetts to the crisis over school funding and the controversy over MCAS tests, and the $1 billion tax package approved by the Legislature earlier this year.
Myers predicted that terrorism is ``not likely to be a significant statewide issue'' in this fall's elections.
``It's the economy that is the most salient issue to voters today,'' Myers said.
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