MidEast turmoil, US pressure on AlQaeda, Islamic groundswell
they all go hand in hand with a premium on oil prices
they are all tied closely together
whatever the source of a "conflict premium", doesnt matter
a premium is there and will remain there ad infinitum
just what the hell is gonna bring all conflicts to resolution?
OPEC reduces prices even as member nations are threatened?
even as shipping lanes become clogged with warships?
USForces wipe out AlQaeda in a Terminix project?
Talibans in Afghany join the Parliament?
Palestine lives in harmony with Israel?
Israels make friends with the Arab world?
no way, not now, not next year, not by 2005
you speak of $14-15 oil upon a condition that will be met when Garrison Keiller is president, and all our children will be above average
I poke fun
seriously, this entire decade will be chockfull of conflict
and most of it will be traceable to the MidEast
WTC and 9/11 represent apocolyptic events
no turning back
I expect the MidEast and Europe to serve as focal points for international geo-politics for many years upcoming
the price of oil will remain high almost without interruption
you always have a sharp eye out there
but I honestly believe you are being fooled by linking the commodity world to the economic world too tightly
the Puplava Birfurcation is very much on schedule
oil services are a different story
we will not search for new oil while gobs of oil lie in the MidEast powderkeg
but delivery of that oil is a totally different risk proposition
that is why OIH/OSX and OIX are two different birds
the CRB is trending higher in ALL its components
the many individual items are not just supplies for economies that ebb & flow with recession & expansion
they are necessities for providing climate control, transportation, and much more for even the unemployed, who will surely receive federal assistance at a level never seen before in the coming years
if your crashing oil price theory were correct, we would have seen crude oil steadily fall as the economy has slowed since the past winter
instead it rises
to be sure, the MidEast situation has delivered a premium in its price
but explain the 80% rise in natural gas prices since Jan2002
these are necessities in short supply
Bifurcation is the next ENIGMA
then imho, the following ENIGMA is rising rates as the US economy falters (from USdollar decline)
this decade will be full of enigmas
/ jim |
