MPVIF Mountain Province Mining Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : MPVIF Mountain Province Mining

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To: kidl who wrote (2362)	9/5/2002 2:01:40 PM
From: GeoDude	Read Replies (2) of 2577

To all MPV fans: I did some quick-look analysis of the data supplied by MPV over the years. I will share this to the thread to add some "meat" to it (and not "hype/innuendos") and to also verify that I am not way out in my estimates. Please comment. 1) the latest results on 5034 are excellent mostly because now 23% of the carats are in > 0.5 carats diamonds. They were 17% or less in past samples. This should lead to a 30+% (23/17)increase in the per carat valuation of the west and central lobes. 2) Diamond distribution follows a log-normal distribution (like a large number of naturally occuring phenomenas). The presence of 3 diamonds >5 carats confirms that there is a long tail to this distribution in the 5034 pipe. Long tail means that large diamonds will be found. As an example a 10,000 tonnes bulk sample should find some stones >10 carats and possibly 1 or 2 greater than 20 carats. This will improve the model valuation since now they have a technically sound basis to include the $69K received from the 10ct diamond. 3) I have reviewed past data from Hearne. Hearne has a higher grade than 5034 but the grade is concentrated in the small stuff. Only about 13% of the carats are in >0.5 ct diamonds. This is OK because there are more ct per tons and thus the grade at a cutoff of 0.5 ct (where the value is) is similar between Hearne and 5034. The interesting part is that the distribution of large stones is also very similar (possibly just a little worse). We have not seen > 5ct stones yet because the sample size has been too small (largest sample 599t) but we have seen numerous 2-5ct stones. This next sample (684t)may be large enough to get some 5+ct stones but in any case will prove that the 5034 distribution applies and should add to the valuation of Hearne. My guess for the results is: 120 stones from 0.5 to 1ct, 40 stones from 1-2 ct, 13 stones from 2 to 5 and maybe 1 > 5ct. The key number for valuation will be the 13 stones > 2ct. 4) I have also looked at Tuzo and it looks like the 5034 distribution may also apply here. The numbers from the 523t sample are real good if one considers that 30% of the material was barren granite that got incorporated in the kimberlitic magma. Adds no value today to the project but in 10 years (after production started and facilities in place for 5034/Hearne) it could be economically mined. A bit long-winded but my conclusion is that the Hearne results WILL be good. MPV is a buy at these levels ($1.25/share) and the fact that they are carried to production is HUGE. Saves them the $300MM+ that otherwise they would need to fund. Luck to all. LIA

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