Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: Roebear who wrote (18427)	9/5/2002 5:06:02 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) of 36161

Just shutting down puters and noticed a new Trop Depression off of Galveston, here's a report, might be interesting for oil and gas... Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1 Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 05, 2002 an Air Force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft found a small closed circulation within a large broad low in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. While the circulation did not technically meet the requirements for a vortex message...it was closed enough to justify initiating advisories on Tropical Depression Six. The aircraft also found flight level winds of 40 kt a short distance offshore of Galveston. Reports from some of the oil rigs indicate that surface winds are very close to tropical storm strength. The initial motion is stationary. Steering currents are weak...but most guidance suggests a very slow general northwestward drift over the next several days. This slow motion will allow for the possibility of a severe flooding event along the Texas and/or Louisiana coast. Depending where the surface circulation firms up...the upper-level winds could be very favorable for strengthening...with shear to the west of the current center and anticyclonic flow to the east. The official forecast calls for the system to strengthen roughly in accord with the SHIPS guidance. Forecaster Franklin forecast positions and Max winds initial 05/2100z 28.1n 93.8w 30 kts 12hr VT 06/0600z 28.5n 93.9w 35 kts 24hr VT 06/1800z 28.9n 94.3w 45 kts 36hr VT 07/0600z 29.4n 94.8w 50 kts...inland 48hr VT 07/1800z 30.0n 95.5w 40 kts...inland 72hr VT 08/1800z 30.5n 96.5w 30 kts...inland

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