Jay, thank you for the review of China's adventures. <The politicians in the US tends to think that their constituency are all people and entities within the US border, but I believe the broader constituency are all who hold USD assets.>
It's nice to see you, me and Uncle Al in agreement on the need to think outside the USA. Uncle Al has explained that his brief is bigger than worrying about the financial implications of the US$ in the USA because it's a global deal he is involved in.
Which is of course why he has been able to do a world record printing and interest rate cutting with not a hint of inflation, especially when combined with the productivity miracle of Biotelecosmictechdot.com Incorporated.
There are no longer 6 degrees of separation; we are all hot-keyed directly to everyone with our money clicking in seconds around the world to any asset.
While the view from NZ is definitely limited, we are actually quite well linked to wassup everywhere. China's vast boom has been obvious to me for years and the pace seems to be quickening, with quality improving; it's on sale in the shops. We see visitors from around the world, who come and hang out and explain this that and the other; somehow, NZ attracts them from all corners of the globe. We have spies in Hong Kong who roam from Shanghai to Trinidad and into Russia, informing us of the the deal there.
I dare say it's possible that the USA will vote itself poor by voting to take over from Albania and North Korea as the most fanatical isolationists, but I doubt it'll go far that way in a hurry. NZ has been voting itself back into the muck for 15 years after a brief flurry of enlightenment - the sheople seem bamboozled by declining relative wealth compared with Oz and other countries. They don't make the correlation with their vote.
China really does seem to be in a New Paradigm of both black and white cats catching swarms of mice. I doubt that it's bubble time yet [not that I have any data to back that up, but I notice that Unicom shares are down]. They have only just started on cdma2000 and cyberphones. They have a long way to go - I expect it'll be like Japan's decades long revival, but on a much grander scale.
The demographic pattern favours very rapid wealth creation - one child per couple, civilization, work ethic, firm government, education and all the good stuff. Maybe they aren't the creative place on earth yet, but that doesn't matter. When getting out of poverty and climbing the ladder of success, simply earning a damn good living is good enough. When surplus wealth is sloshing around, then they can play 'let's try inventing such and such', just like the good old days.
Meanwhile, QUALCOMM puts up the brains, Japan the money, Korea the production techniques and China the land, buildings, workers and markets. That's a very powerful combination.
I'm planning on waiting for some smoke to clear before playing buyer and borrower of last resort. So I'm not standing too close to the edge of the financial precipice.
The cyberspace companies have been sorted out a year or more ago [more or less completely]. The telecosmic ones have only been sorted out this year [after initial major revaluations since May Y2K]. The Biggies such as MSFT, GE, Citigroup, J P Morgan are being smoothed down to sustainable development mode now. GE has not yet shown hairy legs. Intel is swooning. Surprisingly, people have mistaken QUALCOMM as being one that needs revaluation downwards. People are notorious for throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Which is good, because that means I can buy it at lower prices.
Meanwhile, time for zizzo. Yawn...
Welcome back.
Mqurice |
