Since all the "oil experts" on this thread seem hell bent on trashing AIPN, I thought, as a counterbalance, it might be interesting to post a series of messages from AOL by another oil industry expert with quite a different perspective on the near and long term prospects of this company:
Subj: Re:re:SMELL THE $$$$$$$$$
Date: 97-07-17 05:26:08 EDT
From: EHKMSMBA
For all to consider. The fact remains that in the 23 mile long structure that AIPN has yet to assess, had a gas and condensate well. In my many years of experience in the oil and gas industry, this type of well is only found at the top of all huge untapped oil and gas filled structures, and indicates IMHO that the 23 mile long structure can very well be the mother of all the gas and oil fields in the Caspian area including the highly touted Tengis field with its estimated 6 Billion Barrel OIl reserves. A whiff of the air once these types of wells are "uncovered" can be very, very $$$$$$ lucrative, if you get my drift.
Therefore, IMHO AIPN is being sold by unknowledgeable "investors", while knowledgeable investors with the right kind of experience and or knowledge in huge oil and gas fields have been accumulating AIPN shares for the BIG price appreciation potential that will occur in the future. The AIPN stock has run up from the 50 cents to just over the $3.00 level in a matter of a few trading days. Profit taking by the unknowledgeables has dropped the price in the last two trading days to just under the $2.00 level. If you haven't added to your long (long-term) AIPN stock holding position, the next few trading days may just very well allow to be your very last opportunity to do so at ridiculously low prices (which are now below the $3.00 level).
Remember there are all kinds of people that have bought (and have sold) AIPN in the last few days. IMHO, AIPN shares will gravitate into the hands of the most knowledgeable who have the vision and persistence (very uncommon traits), to hold AIPN until it sells after all the splits in the three or four digit $ area.
You can't get rich without perserverance, knowledge, and knowing when you see a bargain. This IMHO is the bargain of all bargains on the stock exchanges today. The only real caveat that I forsee re AIPN is the political one in Kazahkstan. The latest AIPN post re partnerships with the local business community in Kazahkstan dispels those fears enormously. Remember, hungry people will welcome food, etc., if it finally comes their way, and AIPN has taken steps to ensure that the locals will also profit from their venture. Henry Ford did it in a slightly different way, but he scored big doing it. IMHO, AIPN is doing so likewise, by assuring that they have many friends in the area (KAZAHKSTAN) who will profit from the AIPN venture. AIPN stock IMHO, will be selling for > $100 per share, barring no negative political developments, and drilling is completed on a few wells in the 23 mile long structure. The other structures can just add to AIPN's oil fields cache, and make AIPN's holdings comparable to those of other companies in Saudi Arabia.
Also note that neighboring stocks to the AIPN venture (Exxon and Oryx) have done well since the AIPN announcements. This latter fact supports my thesis that the knowledgeables know what is going on and acting positively upon the news.
Good Luck to all.
Sincerely,
EHKMSMBA
Subj: Re: The cat out of the bag
Date: 97-07-17 13:51:24 EDT
From: Bouhafa
EHKMSMBA----Given your experience in the oil business and, specifically, with "blowouts" perhaps you could enlighten me as to the quality of "31 gravity" oil. The reason I ask is that I've been told that that was the quality that came out of the hole in the blowout. I've also been told that this sample, collected presumably by Huddleston, is convincing evidence that there are high grade reserves in the area in which the blowout occurred. Any thoughts on this?
As to the interesting price movement today I agree with you. The MM's scared a lot of people out of the stock at the open yesterday and today. Today's recovery hopefully has to do with people finally realizing the tremendous potential of this story. Here's how I look at it.
Some skeptics have stated that the use of the word "potential" in describing the 1.1 billion barrels means, in oil business lingo, that, until further tests are made, there is a possibility that only 10% of those reserves will actually be oil....had they used the word "probable" to describe the size of the reserves, the likelihood of there being oil increases to 50%. Some have said that, given that 10% figure, the company is engaging is misleading the public. Well. I did some number crunching today and I must say that I disagree with those skeptics using their own worst-case scenario as my model.
Let's assume that AIPN and it's as yet unannounced partner only find 10% of those 1.1 billion barrels. That comes to 110 million barrels worth let's say $17/barrel. I've been told that AIPN's cut of that will hopefully be somewhere in the neighborhood $2.50 and $3.00/barrel. With 37 million shares outstanding that would give AIPN an asset value of $7.43 and $8.91/share!!!....and that's the worse case scenario which also excludes oil that may exist in the 40% of the concession that has not yet been assessed. Of course, if the current structures contain more than 10% oil then the above asset values increase accordingly.
In my opinion, even the most conservative analyst of this situation would have to conclude that AIPN is tremendously undervalued at this level. George Faris (AIPN's CEO) claims that the stock is trading at equivalent of .20/barrel. Now, how many of you think that this company would jump through all the hoops that it has in order to do business in Kazakstan for .20/barrel?? Unlikely, in my opinion.
Cheers...Faris (not to be confused with CEO)
Subj: Re: The cat out of the bag
Date: 97-07-17 16:35:15 EDT
From: PRIVATO1
Bouhafa, 31 gravity oil..is as good as West Texas sweet crude. High premium paid by refineries. If you check oil prices West Texas intermediate is always (about $ 2-3.00 dollars higher then Saudi and Norvegian crude.
Subj: Re:Smittyden's comments
Date: 97-07-19 06:05:26 EDT
From: EHKMSMBA
Well, if AIPN is lying in their Company News posts, we all have a problem. On the other hand if they are not lying, and especially if there was a blowout of gas and condensate at the top of the 50 km long structure that couldn't be assessed, based on my experience with reef structured oil wells, AIPN's stock.
IMHO AIPN WILL DEFINETELY be selling at >> $100 in a few short years, especially once a few development wells are drilled into the 50 km long reef structure.
My guess is that the structures being evaluated in AIPN's working interest tract in the Caspian Sea are submerged highly vugular reef structures, with porosities over 30% and the associated permeabilities very conducive for the rapid migration of oil and gas a la the Golden Triangle in Mexico, as well as those found in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the environs that would cause a blow out such as was posted by AIPN in their press release.
Such blow outs in highly permeable structures cause the necessity of cementing the drilled structure shut to prevent a catastrophic release of all of the gas and oil out of the structure. When that is done, it is impossible to determine the potential of the well, leave alone the field.
You cannot have your cake and eat it at the same time. You either have to repressurize your drilling casing and inject hydraulic cement into the hole or have a major catastrophic blowout, which in either case makes it impossible to test the drilled structure for its reserves potential.
Supply and demand based on information will be the primary determinants of the price of AIPN stock until actual drilling is completed and results are made public. At that time IMHO projected earnings will be the primary determinants of the AIPN stock price.
Good luck to all.
Sincerely,
EHKMSMBA
Subj: Re: The cat out of the bag
Date: 97-07-19 07:04:00 EDT
From: EHKMSMBA
Bouhafa --- As PRIVATOI posted "31 gravity" oil is akin to Texas sweet crude. Sweet crude is primarily found in highly permeable reef structures, confirming my suspicion that a gigantic highly porous and therefore highly permeable reef structure underlies AIPN's Kazahkstan working interest holdings in the 50 km structure that has not as yet been assessed as to its oil and gas reserve potential.
The 1.1 billion barrels that AIPN has so far estimated as reserves in the other structures may therefore very well be very, very totally eclipsed by the 50 km long reef structure.
George Faris (AIPN's CEO)'s claim that AIPN stock is trading at the equivalent of 20 cents per barrel may very well prove to be much to high. IMHO, AIPN may very well be trading at the equivalent of much less than 10 cents per barrel. Incidentally when you buy Exxon, you are paying around $9.00 per barrel.
Simple math based on Exxon's numbers, shows that using George Faris' very conservative numbers, that AIPN should be selling at $45.00 per share. My numbers if they prove correct based on what is found in COMPANY NEWS, several posts by others (and myself) in the last two days on this board, and my experience, IMHO, would indicate very conservatively that AIPN could be selling at > $100.00 per share in the very near future .
Good luck to all.
Sincerely
EHKMSMBA
I hope that these posts are of interest.
Cheers...Faris
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