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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch
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To: TigerPaw who wrote (5855)9/6/2002 11:57:57 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) of 89467
 
Prechter criticized for missing the 1990's boom, but...
two very large macro effects stalled the crush decline
we did see some crush in Asia in 1997-98
but the two big events were so big as to be considered events that come along once per generation

in 1988-89, Japan essentially died
it has been on life support ever since
its financial markets have been a deadzone for 13 years now
in the early 1990's about $600-800 billion came to America from Japan, seeking opportunity for growth
it found it in the USA

in 1998-99, US prepared for Y2K transition
old legacy computer systems were revamped, replaced, updated
entire sales, inventory, customer databases were integrated
software bugs were fixed, but much much more
entire aging systems were replaced
several years of capex spending were squeezed into 18 months

so Prechter was on the right track, expecting the super-cycle stock decline to occur in the 1990's
it just came late due to Japan and Y2K

I noticed Prechter is backing off his gold & silver negative comments
he must have done some more homework
or else taken some severe and deserved criticism

GOLD SHINES IN DEFLATIONARY TIMES
because debts get crushed, and all assets tied to debt gets crushed
/ jim
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