Bear Stearns' Ryding: Double-Dip Jobless Fears Unfounded
06 Sep 11:33
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The unemployment numbers released by the Labor
Department on Friday revealed that the labor market didn't see a second decline
in August, according to John Ryding, Bear Stearns chief market economist.
"We learned that the worst fears that we had slipped into a double-dip in the
labor market in August were unfounded," Ryding told CNBC Friday, adding, "other
than that, I don't think we learned much else, since job creation continues to
run in this 40,000- to 50,000-a-month pace, not really strong enough to bring
down unemployment on a sustained basis."
Ryding doesn't lend much weight to the unemployment rate, or to its decline
to 5.7% from July's 5.9%, which he called a "statistical fluke," since it is
calculated from 60,000 households -- a tiny percentage of the population.
Ryding sees consumer spending increasing about 4% in the third quarter, which
he said should boost the gross domestic product by 3%.
Despite overall consumer strength, Ryding noted that manufacturing and
capital spending are still weak.
Corporate frugality is "holding back the economy," but Ryding doesn't think
the economy is weak enough to move the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates
when it meets again Sept. 24.
Businesses are being cautious now, Ryding said, but he expects spending to
improve in early 2003.
-By Michelle Rama; Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4046;
michelle.rama@dowjones.com
(END) DOW JONES NEWS 09-06-02
11:33 AM |
