re: ["Pimco's Gross calling for Dow 5000 "]
...my "thinking" has been whipsawed back & forth between the case for DOW 5000 & S&P sub 500 vs. we've already seen the bottom/capitulation and are turning as we speak...
But, thankfully my "actions" haven't been whipsawed... and I've kept my trigger finger firmly in it's holster... along with 55% Cash & 35% gold/silver stocks.
...there simply are still not believable numbers.
...what would S&P earnings be slashed to, if options were expensed - 20% was it ?
...then there's the forward guidance and estimates... they're still too high; but how high ?
...then there is HISTORY and those historic median PE multiples... what's cheap is debateable; but, what's not... is that the DOW and S&P are STILL priced for traditional BULL MARKET PEAKS, not a volatile, transitional global geopolitical & economic environment... with big, big fundamental reprecussions coming from a historic misallocation of capital and an ongoing debt implosion and that ever looming cloud of an unprecedented and not as yet Rogue Wave Tested - Derivatives Bubble... and the FED is STILL printing money like mad...and the rest of the world aint getting any better... quite the contrary - Japan months ago was the noveau destination for equity investment - now it's setting fresh alltime lows... on & on ~
CASH, DEFENSE via Gold/Silver, deep value plays & defense stocks, AAA/Govmt Bonds, maybe some TIPS and perhaps most importantly - supreme PATIENCE are the only prudent choices here imho...
TIPS may be a sleeper here fwiw...
Gross says DOW 5000... hmmmm; maybe you keep 80% cash at DOW 8000, go to 70% at DOW 7000, 60% at DOW 6000, 50% at DOW 5000... yeah; that's the ticket (vbg) ~ |
