Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: jimsioi who wrote (18488)	9/6/2002 5:45:06 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (2) of 36161

I posted this earlier on HTP. Perhaps I'll get more response here on SDII given the PM bent. I think we're going to get a decent rally in the indices before we see another big selloff. With that in mind, I propose the following allocations after we get the rally - with capital preservation in mind to be able to jump on opportunities after the next washout. If we get a really nice broad market rally I could see being 50% PMs, 25% short, and 25% cash. My theory here is in a crash the PMs might fall by half, the shorts would double and the cash would stay the same - net zero change. In a rally the PMs would rise a little, shorts would fall a little and cash stays unchanged - again net zero. The risk would be a huge rally that makes PMs and shorts both fall - a prospect I see little chance of. The dream is the goldbug's fantasy that PMs double, shorts double, and cash again stays the same - longshot but possible. Comments? Sharp

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