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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Ish who wrote (42424)	9/6/2002 10:33:55 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) of 281500

Hi Ish; Re: "Yep, this is the prick that opens the boil. Look for a big strike on the 11th and 12th." Here are the reasons there isn't going to be a big attack on Iraq on the 11th or the 12th: (1) Militarily, the US is unprepared for a war with Iraq. Just as in the first Gulf war (Kuwait liberation), there is no suitable ground force to supply air support for, and the US military will not risk a fight with less than a full force. (2) Diplomatically, the US has essentially zero support from key allies. This is in direct distinction to the situation that obtained before the liberations of Kuwait and Afghanistan. (3) Politically, Bush has promised to let Congress argue about it. But congress appears to be taking their time. In addition, key political leaders in congress have publicly, and repeatedly, stated that Bush hasn't made his case, either in his public speeches or in the private briefings they've been privy to. -- Carl P.S. It's far better policy to predict that something is going to happen "someday". Naming a day less than a week away is essentially asking to be reminded that you were wrong.

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