Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (18489)	9/6/2002 11:20:02 PM
From: Frank Pembleton	Read Replies (2) of 36161

Sharp... My theory here is in a crash the PMs might fall by half, the shorts would double and the cash would stay the same - net zero change. Well after today’s action - I can surmise that gold bullion is not directly linked to the American dollar. DDGU? Not today. Gold has regained what it had lost, regained again and lost again - its status as a safe haven. The average ten-year price for crude oil is $22 a barrel, anything more could be considered a war premium. What’s the 10-year average for the price of gold? Should we attach a 30% war premium to the 10 year average here too? Gold stocks on the other hand continue to support a negative beta to the broad markets. Today’s lacklustre performance from my gold stock weighted portfolio supports this little piece of infotainment despite the $320 break through for the POG. As for the dollar remaining a net zero change? I'd bet against that... fwiw...everyday is a new day. Every moment renewed we see a different pattern emerge, so a cookie cutter plan in this kind of extreme volatility would simply be futile. Flexibility and liquidity are a must if you’re going to swing trade your way through this bear market. Your plan might be good today but will it be valid at the opening on Monday morning? Regards, Frank P.

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