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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: orkrious who wrote (190986)	9/6/2002 11:39:17 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (2) of 436258

ork, this Zeal guy is a moron... <<there is little doubt stock market activity is dominating capital flows into and out of the bond markets>> <<The bottom line is that the bond markets, and hence long rates, seem to be heavily influenced or even controlled by any exodus of flight capital from US stock markets corresponding with bear market rallies>> somebody please buy this fellow a clue (and some long treasury zeroes <g>). the stock market DRIVES the bond market? maybe Mr. Hamilton ought to take a look at the relative sizes and trading volumes in the treasury and equity markets before he makes such laughably ridiculous statements. marginal stock market monetary flows no more drive the bond market than my capital flows drive the price of Americredit. since stock market flows DRIVE bond prices, maybe Mr. Hamilton will explain to me how an 18-year bull-market in stocks co-incided with an 18-year bull market in bonds (by his logic bond prices should have been going DOWN, and thus yields up, as stocks sucked up capital from 1982 through 2000). Hamilton has an idea/axe to grind (the Fed sucks 'cause they are de-basing our money and causing inflation) and is searching around for data that make his case. there is no inflation. money is going to money heaven as fast as the Fed can make new stuff. prices are going DONW (not-withstanding temporarily high oil due to (potential) Iraq conflict and soon-to-be high food prices due to drought in the Midwest -- perhaps Mr Hamilton will blame the lack of rain on Alan Greenspan <g>). the ten-year is going to have a two-handle by this time next year. the treasury rally is SOOOOO not over. Cheers

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