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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 106.70

-0.3%

Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: E. Charters who wrote (89391)	9/8/2002 11:29:52 AM
From: goldsheet	Read Replies (1) of 116796

> SA, Canada and Russia's supply is not assured. In the coming decade the US supply will decline too. I don't see fundamentals to support Brazil or Australia with increased output Most of those you mentioned have already peaked (mature markets in decline), so that was not a difficult prediction to make. RSA produced 1000mt in 1970 and appear to be close to bottoming near 400mt. Canada peaked at 177mt in 1991 and is now 160mt. Australia peaked at 315mt in 1997 and is under 280mt now. Brazil did 103mt in 1989 and is under 50mt. US peaked at 366mt in 1998 and is under 350mt. After bottoming near 100mt in 1998, Russia is back over 150mt and should do 165mt in 2002, maybe a temporary success story. The real winners: Peru went from 10mt in 1991 to over 140mt now and rising Indonesia from 17mt in 1991 to 160mt now but declining Tanzania from 6mt in 1991 to 66mt now and rising Mali from 5mt in 1991 to 45mt now and rising even Mexico went from 10mt to 30mt in this timeframe.

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