> I believe gold production will decline soon to 1500 tons per year and gradually in the next 20 years, taper off to below 1000 tons per year as it used to be in the 1970's.
After hitting 2604mt in 2001, I do think production will decline a bit, but not much below 2250mt. Miners didn't slow down at all with gold at $250. With gold $75 higher some mothballed projects are starting to look viable. In my spreadsheets, I currently have 700mt of reserves and 1000mt of resources being currently being reported. I expect more resources to be put into the reserves category given higher prices.
I think we are going to have a run towards $500 gold later in the decade which should set off another exploration funding boom like the early 1990s, leading me to the conclusion that instead of 1800mt in 2010 as predicited in some reports, or your 1000mt, I think we will end the decade with a new record of 3000mt of worldwide gold production. Lots of production, cash flow, earnings, and money to eventually be made in gold stocks !!
The real problem: The gold mining industry is still way too fragmented for them to get control over production or prices. We need 3 or 4 firms to produce well over 50% of production (like in base metals) if we ever expect them to control themselves. It currently takes 20 mining companies to get to the 50% level, and 3 of them aren't even primary gold miners. |
