Faris ---- don't confuse what is being said by "oil experts" as "trashing AIPN"; how about calling it "enlightening" the readers as to the economics of a very weak "prospective" venture and the highly promotional press releases that are captivating the imaginations out there.
>>Since all the "oil experts" on this thread seem hell bent on trashing AIPN, I thought, as a counterbalance, it might be interesting to post a series of messages from AOL <<
You re-posted what I thought were some "misguided" opinions from other AOL readers; whether oil "experts" or not. "Misguided" is my choice of words since those reposted comments certainly lacked anything resembling a true economic perspective of what has been said in the press releases.
How about another opinion from an AOL contributor whose opinions I generally have had a high degree of respect for over a long period of time. I have not passed on his name on purpose. ( No it's not me .... )
Here goes....
>>I am a petroleum geologist and have worked in Russia since 1991 evaluating fields. Several people have contacted me lately wanting my opinion of the latest AIPN news release. I have no position in this company, but it is apparent that I am reading the news release differently than most folks, so for your entertainment, I offer my perspective.
>AIPN NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 10, 1997
>...announced today that it has received revised reserve estimates for its license in Kazakstan
>...preliminary evaluation ... potential recoverable reserves from 7 structures, located in the western half of the License, could be as much as 1.1 billion barrels
["potential" is the keyword here, and has very specific meaning in petroleum terminology. In this case, it means "could someday be found maybe, if anyone were to drill a well". These are not reserves yet! These are numbers assigned and carry probabilites of risk of perhaps 1 in 7 for success.]
>The revision of potential reserve estimates was due to the receipt of additional seismic data
[Note that they don't say revision by drilling!]
>The Kazakstan Government drilled one well ... which blew out with gas and condensate
[Uh oh, can't sell gas to the western markets. Can only trade for rubles...]
>The company believes that this structure, whose potential reserves are not
yet estimated, could provide the largest potential deposit in the License Area.
[Yes, it might be the largest deposit, but then again, it might be non commercial too, since it seems to contain gas. This point definitely needs clarification, or perhaps it was intentionally misleading?]
>Production can be sold North to Russia, Finland and the Atyrau Refinery, and/or South through the Caspian Sea port at Aktau for export abroad.
[i.e., Gas production can be sold to Russia for rubles, oil production can be sold to the north or west. Good luck in the Caspian route, we all know that is years away. Therefore you are stuck with the long northern route - ha!]
In conlusion, it looks to me like AIPN has secured themselves a large piece of prospective exploration acreage. I have no problem with that. Just don't mix up this promotional press release and think that they have actually drilled and found anything yet. I really can't reccommend rank exploration deals in Russia to anyone ...<< |
