Jim,
Since we don't have the chart to look at it's hard to see what kind of TA Swenlin is using. Much as I like TA, Swenlin with an SPX of 350 is talking about a retrace to the 1994-5 levels. I don't really think TA can look quite that far into the future, as a continual fall to 350 would probably take another 2 years.
Here's an SPX with some broad lines and Fibo numbers drawn in, just to get a sense of scale.
stockcharts.com[h,a]mbllyiay[d19930908,20020908][pf][vc60][iut!li14,3!lb14!lg!lc9][J6920253,Y]&listNum=1
As for any earnings relationship, S&P's earnings are 44.70, which at 893 gives it a p/e of 20. These are, of course, depressed earnings. To get to an SPX of 350, assuming no further earnings collapse, you end up with a p/e of 7.83.
spglobal.com
I don't really see that happening. I'll stick for now with my autumn bottoms of Dow 6500, Naz 1000 (985), and SPX 650.
Beyond the fall I see a rally and beyond that is beyond the capabilities of TA or FA or Nostradamus, separately or combined, imiho.
Kb |
