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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: LindyBill who wrote (42654)	9/8/2002 9:06:33 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (1) of 281500

Thanks for the reply, Bill. My own sense is that it's much more complicated. Keppel is changing my mind about a lot of things. I'm not prepared to say too much yet because it is genuinely complicated and I don't understand it well enough to boil it down into communicable phrases. Right now I'm driving my wife nuts with these complicated scenarios. She asks what I now think about x, y, or z in the ME and then walks away ten minutes later as I'm only into the second or third page of complications. But I'll get there. The biggest complication I see and I one I expected to see is that something called the Islamists is a differentiated movement, only some elements of which are into violence. Their ability to control the flow of political events in any country is a product of a great many variables but not a given. However, one interesting thing. Keppel sees the Iranian situation as completely unique even though it, obviously, became a model for activists. The absence of a similarly respected figure in other countries limited its spread.

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