RE: "the loser" topic, that is.
It is funny. Everybody is gleefully shouting about the Octel buyout. And yes I admit, it has been good for everybody who got in in the teens. The fact that a good number of folks on this thread have seen 50-100% in a year is great. But what puzzles me is that nobody seems intersted in discussing the impact on the VM market as a whole. Likewise, nobody seems willing to answer those on this post who have expressed sincere hope to see Octel reach 50 or split. Is Lucent stealing Octel at 31?
I guess what I missed is that few if any on this thread seem to be looking at the VM business as a whole. Rather, Octel just represented an oppotunity to make a few bucks. That is where we differ. My business is messaging. I understand the technology, and I have pretty good knowledge of the market issues and trends.
I get labeled "loser" just because I see the long term market working against Octel (I stilldo). Excuse me. The game is far from over. The entire VM business just got turned on its head. Centigram is now the largest independent VM company. Most of Lucent's PBX vendor competitors will no longer be Octel channels (who systems will they choose to replace OCtel?). The VM opportunites are HOT HOT HOT
My picks for the VM are Centigram and ActiveVoice. Let's take Gregory Holden's hypothetical 5K shares of stock distributed 65-35 between CGRM and ACVC respectively, over the next 6 months, avg buy price of ~$12 for both. My prediction, ACVC will lead in the low-end CPE. CGRM will start winning enterprise CPE Octel accounts. CGRM is already in command of the very lucrative cellular market (funny nobody seems interested in the fact that Lucent chose CGRM as its cellular partner just 2 weeks ago). Also, watch for Dialogic (DLGC) and Brooktrout (BRKT) in the CT side (expect Lucent to sell off Rhetorex for cheap as Lucent is partnering with DLGC already, and I'd pick BRKT as likely buyer for Rhetorex).
BTW: Those hypothetical shares are not so hypothetical in my case.
Barring any questions directed at me (I'm sure I just bought at least 5 more insults), I will now be off to CGRM, ACVC, BRKT, and DLGC.
Best to all. And, Gregory Holden, Hats off too you. Your 5K shares did quite well!! |
