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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)
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To: Larry S. who wrote (688)9/8/2002 9:56:11 PM
From: Larry S.   of 972
 
Dan, et al,

This week Barron's carried and interview with James Turk. He makes a strong case for our being at the beginning of a bull market in gold that he expects to last for a couple of years. He discusses several reason including a weak dollar and the short positions resulting from the carry trade and manipulation. But, he doesn't explain why the major banks involved,with the help of the ESF, can't continue to hold the price down. I look forward to speaking with him about the subject at the Mining Conference in NYC on the 23rd and 24th.

One of the guests on Kudlow and Cramer also made positive comments about gold but I didn't catch his name. Kudlow didn't argue with him.

Lease rates continue their down trend and are close to their all-time lows. If the trend continues and the recent up trend in the POG continues, we should break through the 325 level before the 23rd but I will believe it when I see it.

FWIW, Epstein wrote the Economic Beat Column in Barron's again and argues that the economic data, properly interpreted, suggests a higher growth rate. He is looking for an annual growth rate of 4%. He also suggests that the market should begin to reflect this improvement over the next month or so as the economic data will be easier to interpret.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 09/05, the Barron's GMI was 414.61, up from the previous week's 408.21. With the POG up proportionately at 319.25(09/06), the ratio was held at 1.30.

The ratio a year previously was 1.10.

Cheers,
Larry
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