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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: kodiak_bull who wrote (16418)	9/9/2002 10:35:40 AM
From: pvz	Read Replies (1) of 23153

Ha! It's a good thing that you brought this one up, because I haven't looked at it as much as I should have in recent weeks. However, I'm not sure I can make a good interpretation of where it is right now. Let's look at a 3 year view: stockcharts.com[e,a]dhllnyay[df][pb15!b100][vc60][J4304647,Y]&pref=G It appears to me that the slope of the 100ma and the 15 ma are most comparable to Nov/Dec 99 to Apr 2000. Wouldn't this appear to be signalling that the current trend is up, but look out when the 15 crosses back over the 100? Judging by the chart, while it is not necessarily going to cross over immediately, it is inevitable in its own good time. I think the cpc:vix gives some reasonable top and bottom indicators, although it doesn't appear to be very precise from one day to the next and probably shouldn't be used as an exact timing tool. On the other hand, if you had gone short each time the 15ma crossed above the 100 ma (May 00, Feb 01, May 01 and Dec 01), you wouldn't have been far off the mark.

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