Bernard
from your article:
I continue to believe that gold works to $340 an ounce, and I'm curious -- quite curious, as a matter of fact -- why virtually nobody is paying attention to the action in the CRB futures index. It's up 12% in the past three months, 18% year to date, and it's working right up to resistance from autumn/winter 2000 in the 230-235 area.
The only problem that I see with this guys analysis (as well as the guy from Pimco) is that
1. The Street.com is run by a bunch of guys that went broke during the 90's as a hedge fund (short side of the market) In the case of the Pimco guy, he wants to sell bonds that have moved a considerable amount in the last 3 years.
2. Remember during the heydays of DOW 11k and NASD 5000? The Guru's were high fiving and telling of DOW 34k and NASD 10k.......same thing now, just reversed.
3. The market is supposed to be based on valuation/growth to maturity then valuation. This is a new market...it reacts violently to everyday/hour/minute events (mostly to the extreme in either direction)
Basically, "they" (the market) has become, for the most part, a big casino. There are some long term exceptions out there (Sergio is great at finding these). The "they" out there have to keep the suckers coming back to the game of chance (just like Vegas) with rallies and the constant promise of a better day...If they did'nt we would all quit and go home, then where would they get capital to play the game?
Everyone in the market has an agenda....those that are published in the daily media are the ones with the largest agendas. For every one that says DOW 5000 you will also find one that says DOW 12k.
So, we (you and me and the little guys) will continue to play the game, making a few bucks here and there based on OUR evaluations of things and not some "I'm in the paper, so I'm right all of the time". guru.
I'm now stepping down from my soap box and enjoying CDIC going into a rally as well as INAP (riding the fast moving average to .40ish) LOL
Ken |
