Bob, many thanks for your very informative reply.
Last things first. The reason there are no controls on my chart is because I don't post the whole web page, only the "properties" of the particular chart. Reason for that is I have a whole lot of similar charts on an HTML page and I do all the charts at one smack.
I do see that the MACD gave the buy (crossing) signal in early August but the ADX was on its way down indicating that no trend was in evidence yet. In fact, the first time the ADX turned up was at the end of August by which time the Index had risen by virtually a third.
However, at that stage the DI+ was clearly above DI- and so I presume it signalled a "buy" although the ADX was still well below 20. Now ADX is at 20 and also above the DI- so I would have thought the trend is truly confirmed for the first time.
I see you like a hybrid approach and make your decision to buy or sell on the MACD well before it is confirmed on the DI/ADX. For various reasons I don't like to "trade" and prefer an "investment" ie long-term approach which, in many ways is a lot harder to get right not least because one is forced to wait before buying or selling until the long term indicators flash.
Here's the weekly, 3 year, chart of the $GOX which is almost "ready", I would say, because the MACD hasn't crossed and the ADX is still pointing down. When the MACD crosses and ADX points up I assume the uptrend will resume again, hopefully, in full force.
stockcharts.com[h,a]waclynay[df][pb50!d20,2!f][iLl14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Nevertheless, what I see on this chart is that, in terms of the DIs, the bull market has been virtually intact since the beginning of 01. In fact, as a long-term investor I did the right thing by not selling because, if I had, I would have missed the 30% recovery since August. |
