Just checking in from sickville here, and I've got to say I'm a little confused by the A) lack of overall posting on some of my fave threads and B) the lack of differing opinions. Basically, everyone seems to be looking for a variant of the S+P H+S to finish. . . and maybe in the BKX and in the Naz (which would point to smashing the lows by a lot). There's a consensus towards down.
I admit that the charts show a lot of downside potential. Naz TRIN and TICK diverged today (and Friday's Naz TRIN was scary low). But I'd also note that A) the S+P did bounce right at the 50% retracement near 870, B) the commercial trader's trend is bullish, C) some sentiment levels speak towards too much belief in down, and D) max pain is still above (though not terribly so). Also, with the anniversary of Sept 11 and the President's upcoming speech to the UN, I'm amazed that our conspiracy advocates aren't point out that this is a perfect time for "them" to spark a surprise rally.
Now, I also admit that I added a bit to my shorts today, and would likely do so on strength tomorrow, but I'd be very quick to get out of the way and reverse. I sincerely hope we don't have a selloff into the 11th then a repeat of July 5th, as there really should be no reason to fear the 11th more than any other date. But we shall see. And again, I would like to see some bullish alternates. . . not that I have one that springs from logic, it's true.
the freep |
