Yeahhh… Bullish argument… What about the fact that you and I and the Rydex traders are short? -g/ng. Maybe, structurally speaking, Mr. Market, after rallying in a double zigzag since July, may decide to decline now in a 5-3-5 (us being now somewhere in the ‘3’), and then kick butt in another several wiggles up, to match the move in July-August…
And yes, postings slowed down. Is it bullish or bearish? I don’t know. I perceive the silence as a sort of a ‘decrease in volatility’, with people having little to say because they may be having too many doubts. Calm before a storm?
The bullish case is not easy to make. The long-term trend is down. The action since the onset of July – August rally was somewhat ‘ugly’, sharp, “three-wavy”, with many overlaps, and full of episodes of panic buying, as witnessed by frequent and at times daily extreme ticks.
So… imho, the down resolution is more likely, but short-term counter moves may be sharp and exhausting… Got to have clear criteria for money management. Bad time for leveraging out every buck ..-bg. |
