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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (43131)	9/10/2002 10:47:32 PM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (3) of 281500

it worked well for Nazism, which had been pretty persuasive until then. An ideology that was developed by a government can be removed by removing that government. Islamism developed well before it had a government to sponsor it; in fact many Governments in the ME - including many that we don't like - view it with serious distrust and suspicion. Unfortunately, changing one or more governments in the region will not make the ideology go away. Iraq, for example, is not even an Islamist government, and overthrowing Saddam will hardly be a blow against Islamism. An American occupation of Iraq would affirm one of the central Islamist beliefs: that the US is out to occupy (and presumably de-Islamify) the ME. I don't see that as a pacifying factor. We're hardly wading in, we've been very "in" Iraq since 1990. And Saddam has been proclaiming himself the victor. Do we let him get nukes and force us out, or do we stand up to him? and if so, when? He can't force us out by getting a nuke. It would be suicide for him to use it. By "wading in" I meant setting ourselves up as an occupier and as the sponsor of a new Government. This is a situation I would prefer to see us avoid. The Islamists know that the only way they can engage and defeat us is to lure us into a situation where we are vulnerable. When the Russians set themselves up as an occupier and a sponsor of a Government, they open the door to their own defeat. I think the Islamists believe that they can beat us if they can drag us into that role. They might, unfortunately, be right. they are going to have trouble keeping up the story of how we are wimps who can be easily defeated. The only way they can beat us is to lure us into a position where they can engage us in a war of attrition. They know this very well. we will just have to create a success story in Iraq Despite all the talk going around, I've seen no convincing ideas on how this is to be done. Have you?

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