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Technology Stocks : Bookham Technology

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To: Keith Fauci who wrote (235)	9/11/2002 12:50:50 PM
From: Mahatmabenfoo	of 376

I'm no expert, but the statistics I've seen about "dark" (unused) fiber are mindboggling -- OVER 90% is unused, just glass in the ground. Behind this is apparently: - an exaggerated sense of how much bandwidth would be needed - too many would-be competitors building bandwidth (so there'd be a glut even if the predictions of need were accurate) - a dramatic and not predicted increase in what existing fiber networks can carry efficiently using new compression and tuning techniques. As to when the excess will be used up, my (very) inexpert opinion is: never. By the time it's needed, there will probably be a better mousetrap, and still no reason to power up 5 or 10 or more year old fiber built for another time. All that being said.... the internet is hear to stay, and probably fiber is here to stay (I don't think wireless is really capable of supplanting it) which may mean that BKHM may have a place if it can survive long enough. and there's a certain cold comfort in the fact that if I don't know what I'm talking about (very possible here) no one else does either. What was that guy's name, Gilder something? :) - Charles

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