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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: y2kate who wrote (5208)9/11/2002 1:40:15 PM
From: Paul SeniorRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
y2kate. I'll weigh in with an opinion. I'm not at all qualified or knowledgeable, but I'll give my opinion anyway. It'll be bereft of accounting/finance/tax expertise and that IS required. (I've no knowledge there either.)

House prices go up and they go down. Going down is normal. Bubble is a scary word. If house prices go down, and you have sold your house at this, a high point, you had better be hoping we're in a bubble. And that your $800k home and other homes drop down, down, down. Because if that's not so, and your home price only drops $100K or $200K or doesn't drop, imo(and I'm guessing here) you will have impaired your lifestyle in that you will have a difficult time buying back into a comparable area, because you have incurred transaction costs selling and buying, and higher local taxes in buying than at the $300k price. (Maybe mortgage rates will have increased too.)

Assuming you do sell, it's not like you've got a need or idea for the money you'll be taking out of your home. You've already implied you're not thrilled with the stock market and/or your results there. If you get 3% on your $500K profit (800k-300k, assuming it's escaped taxes), that's $15K/year (before taxes). Not enough to change a life style.

So why are you considering selling your home, which I assume you can afford, and where you "really like to live"?

Too me - without knowing anything about you of course -g-, it seems like it's scaredy woman talk. I say for you, it'll be a tradeoff between stress relief (no more scared) and regret.

My opinion? Chill. Get beyond it. Your house is your home. Pay your mortgage, count yourself blessed, cluck at the ups and downs of prices. You ain't likely to help yourself by selling.

Paul Senior
(jmo. All from what I guess and surmise
and... I've been wrong many, many times.)
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