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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks

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To: Scott Mc who wrote (4165)	9/11/2002 5:32:57 PM
From: Peter W. Panchyshyn	Read Replies (1) of 11633

I am particularly interested on how many different trusts you might have on your watch list and what would trigger a buy (or sell), E.G. do you use long term limit orders, and how would you decide your additional purchase price and quantities ------ I have 11 trusts that I hold and accumulate on weakness and watch as you say. NCF (and NCA - merged) and AY are my two recent (just more than a year and a half or so). The remainder AE, EIT, FPG,LIF, RTU, SDT go back to the very beginnings of this forum (see my very first post) and of course ERF,PGF and REF go back to their very beginnings. I don't much particularly care for the more recent by themselves so play those by way of the trusts of trusts. I'll let them do all the work buying and selling the individuals and I will just accumulate them again on weakness----- ----- Now my approach or method has been as I described several times earlier in these postings. I use the historical past trading numbers (unit prices). Thats the high low ranges for the trusts for each year going back to their beginnings. I use linear regression on those past numbers to give ranges where the trust is likely to be trading in the next forward year. Further to that I then set up from the past numbers where these past numbers suggest that the high ranges are at and where low ranges are at. Now I also look to the spread between each years highs and lows and how much that has changed to fine tune the model. Now with the high ranges set before hand if the trust price is in that range or close to that range I don't buy. I don't see the need to sell either because of the high monthly income being paid out. I just wait and collect the high income. Thats the meat of these trusts. Now as the trust prices cycle lower because that is what they do (proved by the historical data) I follow that movement and when the trust price comes close enough to the low range and or enters the low range I will begin my buying (accumulating) once again. I stagger my purchases from that downward. Each successive purchase being more (much more) than the last. I can do this because I have not been chasing after the gains at the high end. I have just collect the income. And the months of doing this and the large numbers of units accumulated over time ensure that this warchest is huge. I also have at my disposal a large investment line of credit and margin accounts at my disposal to use at the necessary time. Because of the cycling nature of trusts. I am certain that the unit price will recover from the lows. So buying when all else are screaming the end of the trusts has never been a problem. I look forward to doing it each and every time. Because each and everytime it works. I see that NCF has crossed over $12 today and closed at $12. That puts me firmly ahead. The whole process is simplicity at its finest. You don't ever worry about every little detail every second of everyday trying to catch a rise and then getting sideswiped by events. You simply go with the flow of the trusts. Now this rise to $12 for NCF is the gravy (above my average cost) . The meat is the high monthly income. It doesn't matter how long or how far NCF goes or lasts. When it again reverses direction downward I will again be buying according to my method. And do the whole thing all over again with the same results. That meaty high monthly income. Buying more and more units at lower prices reducing my average cost and getting more and more high income from those more and more units. From that once again it will reverse direction going higher until it again erases any unrealized losses giving once again both the meat and the gravy and then it will repeat it all over and over again. BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT IT DOES. --------------

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