I thought you guys were gonna jump all over me on Zeev
my guess is that he posts because he is very social
in May on the Jackass Porch thread, I said Zeev didnt understand the gold market very well
he took me on, 1:1
for the better part of a day, we discussed things
afterwards, I was convinced he still didnt understand the gold market
he was just more vocal in his conventional view
it was then when he pulled out his professor mantle and publishing self-kudo
I thought that was an arrogant major turnoff
his world touches closely that of Economics
I will match my graduate school degree, my alma mater, and my training with anyone in or near the statistics field, which includes in that broad swath, Economics
I didnt have a chance for followup with him on the extremely depressed and destitutute state of affairs in the world of Economics within both academia and practice
I would and will if the chance arises again
I believe Economics is the sorriest subfield of statistics in the world today, totally overrun by politics (inside govt and inside corporations)
it is a TRAVESTY of incompetence, political bias, internal modeling bias, heretical assumptions, and plain shitty amateurish practice
far too often bivariate studies or fragmented aggregate studies are just plain fallacious
and gold is the victim of many such analyses
Zeev falls into the "deflation is bad for gold" trap
I was struck with an impression that his political leanings might probably color his gold perceptions in a manner totally entwined with liberal currency policy that enabled both social spending and foreign aid (e.g. Israel) to continue unabated
several comments reinforced this view
I still think he is a great guy
just confused as to why people give a shit
if he loves chips, or loves crude oil, I dont care
but many jump
and if he thinks the S&P will peak in the third Sept week, I cannot help but laugh
as a statistician, I am fully aware of how shorterm movement resembles a random walk or brownian motion
but nearterm and longterm movement is far more predictable, analyzable, and actionable
Zeev probably corrals hundreds of $1k's per year trading
more power to him
but I have found such traders lead far more fellow followers to losses than gains
mainly because speed with judgment and guts is too difficult to duplicate in one man's wake
I expect Zeev will be confused in the bifurcation of inflation and deflation sectors simultaneously, since he is very conventional, and seems to be affected unduly by political issues
so what if liberal currency policy is required to pay for a vast social welfare state, and for an absurd foreign aid like to Egypt and Israel simultaneously?
the consequence is a debased currency and encouraged gold market
to those who accept the demonetized role of gold, boy oh boy, are they in for a surprise
end of story
/ jim |
