HI MulhollandDrive, <<… Message 15113604
… care to make a prediction as to how many years???>>
Predictions are a bad bet. When I am wrong, folks would say whatever they say, and if I am spot-on, they would say I got lucky. With that preamble out of the way, let’s me do some predicting:0)
First, some isolated facts as I understand them:
I understand Mitsubishi is offering 0% financing, and no payment in the first 12 months for their automobiles in the USA (they must see a bullish future);
I am aware that previous telecom capacity wholesale salesmen are getting their real estate agent certificates in California;
I appreciate that Greensputin is mouthing the next chapter of Greensbubble Script, that fiscal spending bubble may force market interest rate to rise, and thus prick the housing bubble he said could not be;
I suppose Mr. Bush will lead a possibly reluctant USA into a new old war, continuing an ancient tradition, with the ROW looking on, and possibly refusing to finance; and
I take on board all the doom/gloom ingredients of bubbling asset values, collapsing free trade, sputtering economic engines, debt poisoned funding stream, parched money recycling, plentiful fiat paper pumping, lost pools of jobs, et cetera, ad infinitum, ad nauseam, so on and so forth …
Ok Jay, so when is the !%$&&^%)(* equity market bottom? The truth is somewhere here:
1-24 months after the USD collapses by 25-30% from current levels. The collapse of USD will be a symptom of all that is not quite right, triggering a renewed and officialdom unstoppable process of cleansing. Interest rates will rise in face of weak economy, international electorates will refuse to add to their USD hoard/assets, casting votes of naught confidence in US domestic and foreign policies irregardless of how much domestic support there may be, prickling the very delirious housing bubble and spray the residual equity foam on to a big space. The process will lead to further loss of jobs, assets, value, flexibility, and dynamism, ending in eventual exhaustion of US domestic patience in every official initiative, domestic and international;
or,
30 days before clear and decisive victory in the WAT/WOT and whatnot, with the US once again in lead of world morals, morale, and creativity, with the world soon to be at carefree peace, trade shortly to be at an unimpeded flourish, with US safely able to pull back its military from ROW, and the future justifying 100 x proforma PE once more.
Oops, almost forgot, we also must have played out the entirety of these scripted headlines;0)
Message 15421566
and this target hit several times, from top and bottom side:
Message 14861804
"Just for example, if we were to use NASDAQ index in 1989 at 500 (plus or minus a few points) as starting point, and apply a long term rate of return of say, 15%, then a nasty correction can take the NASDAQ to 2300. If we use 10% as the long term return rate, then the correction of NASDAQ can take us to 1400"
Chugs, Jay |
