The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (5270)	9/12/2002 8:28:27 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) of 306849

Why do the foreclosure rates have meaning? Because they paint a picture of structural problems in the economy. Only if you can draw some sort of conclusion from it. Q1 99 and today have nothing in common economic fundamentals-wise, except that foreclosures were high. The fact that in 1999 default rates were so high, and that in 2002 they are even higher, in the midst of a bull market in housing, should really scare people. From 1999-2001 shouldn't they have been scared, seeing that the 99 default rates were so high? After all, they were higher than some prior high, correct? It looks to me like the impending gloom and doom of this foreclosure indicator has been nullified by its previous false positive of 1999. Thanks to the prior poster who indicated the 99 reading might be due to the bankruptcy crackdown. Now THAT is a meaningful rebuttal... unfortunately I have no idea how to verify it. I can't even imagine what will happen when the macroeconomy hits 1991 levels of unemployment. The tech regions are already there, and worse. L

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