I agree it's a bit of a risk. I'll have a tight stop if it happens. Those bear flags breaking on the dailies are enough to scare anyone.
However, we did ramp in early July much like this appears to be set up. Granted, that was a holiday, but we also have done stuff like this for options expiration too.
It is the darkest just before options expiration, then everything gets peachy all of a sudden.
That said, I'm not going to get cute or anything and try to short higher than 1314 if we do fill that gap. The charts look downright scary right now.
Perfect setup would be a ramp to 1314 Tuesday/Wed, a drop into the 20th/23rd to 1250 COMP, a rise to 1280 Tuesday 24th, and a drop to 1170 in 3-sessions after that (by the 27th).
Quite do-able, I think.
A nice comparison - May 2001 we had the 4-Tops <G>
2328, 2264, 2182, and 2102. After 2102, it was all downhill.
We have a possible 4-tops here - 1426, 1347, 1314?, 1270?
After 1270 it would be all downhill. This is a bit quicker than the May-Sept. drop, but I think it is a valid comparison. |
