I may be mistaken about this, but my guess is that the Administration does not intend a major war or occupation of the country, but instead hopes to have a swift incursion that neutralizes retaliatory capacity, encircles loyalist elements (ie, the Revolutionary Guard), and terminates or incarcerates Saddam and his entourage. Then, we will install a transitional regime from among Iraqi dissidents resident in the West, and stay long enough for them to become entrenched, and for us to seek and destroy the WMD infrastructure. The presumption is that the populace is hungry for normalization, that there is a high degree of professionalism in national administration, and that Saddam does not have a large, ideologically committed following, but mostly survives through the use of carrots and sticks.
Iraq is a far more advanced country than Afghanistan, materially and culturally, so there is little fear of warlordism or suicidal fanaticism. The biggest test would be whether the Kurds and Shi'ites took advantage of the situation to partition the country, how brutally the new regime reacted, and whether Turkey and Iran were sucked into the hostilities. My guess is that the Administration is trying to work out an autonomy deal for the Kurds, short of independence, and reviewing pacification measures for the southern Shi'ites, along the lines of substantial aid....... |
