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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: yard_man who wrote (191860)9/13/2002 4:58:59 PM
From: reaper  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
tip, i spend more time looking at the trends in year-year growth than in month-month growth

for the month of August, sales ex autos were +3.73% year-year. further adjust for building supplies and sales were +3.35% year-year.

for the month of July, sales ex autos were +3.80% year-year. further adjust for building supplies and sales were +3.53% year-year.

for the month of June, sales ex autos were +3.80% year-year. further adjust for building supplies and sales were +3.60% year-year.

so we have witnessed a modest de-celeration over the last three months.

also, to put a little more historical context on this, in August of 2000 the sales ex autos were +6.67% versus August 1999 and sales ex autos and ex building materials were +6.95% versus August 1999. so there is a HUGE slow-down in consumer growth versus just a couple of years ago.

i frankly find it borderline unbelievable that with all the refi activity, all the cheap credit offers, etc etc etc that retail sales are growing so slowly. and remember, those are NOMINAL growth rates, not real.

slowly but ever so surely the consumer is caving.

Cheers
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