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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Bilow who wrote (43840)	9/14/2002 8:50:50 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) of 281500

Hi Carl - when extrapolating from past events in an attempt to predict future events, one must select past events in which the fact situation which closely resembles the one you are looking at. I think the fact situations you chose are not close enough, thus I pose counterfactuals. When the Nazis invaded the Ukraine, many in the population (Christians, of course, not Jews or Communists) were happy to see them because the Nazis threw out the Communists. The people in the concentration camps were happy to see the Allies. The slaves in the South were happy to see the Yankees. What do all these events have in common? The invaders brought with them a better way of life than was previously experienced. We are well-liked by the people who live in the No-Fly zone, who are not just Kurds - some are Shia, some are Sunni, some are Christians. We give them a better way of life. I posted earlier in the week that Saddam has moved his troops away from the No Fly Zone. It's counter-intuitive unless he is afraid that they will switch sides.

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